Cuba with and without Castro

Fidel Castro’s resignation on February, 19, 2008, makes an old question come up to us once more: was he good for Cuba? Backing to 1959, when Mr. Castro and Che Guevara overthrow Fulgencio Batista from power the leaders of Cuban Revolution had made a promise of holding free elections and restoring democracy to the island. Years have gone since then and Cubans are still waiting for that political freedom.

Since July 2006, Mr. Castro has stepped down and has empowered his younger brother Raul – who is blamed by international press of alcoholism and lack of charisma – as a President of the Communist Party and the head of the Council of State. By that time Castro had undergone to an emergency surgery for a terminal intestinal cancer or diverticulitis with complications and last Tuesday (Fev, 19, 2008) he finally resigned by stating an official announcement on the Granma that he would not accept to be indicated by National Assembly to occupy the position of President and Commander in chief.

Washington and the large community of Cubans living in Florida and New Jersey still seem to wait for an opportunity to open Cuba to the world after Fidel’s resignation. However, nothing seems to change at all. The daily life on the island is exactly the same that used to be before that such a long-hoped announcement. Policymakers have different perspective of the following event. Some of them believe that it finally give to US the right opportunity of restoring democracy and an open society in Cuba. Others think the opposite by stating that communism in Cuba will outlive after Fidel, specially because he has prepared his staff for this moment for many years and the Cuba’s system seems to be ready for a very smooth and stable transition.

It has been told that Cuba’s system will not survive at all after Mr. Castro’s death, firstly, because his successor has a more opened agenda to modernize of the country inspired by Chinese model of development; secondly, because the long-oppressed population of Cuba is eager for political freedom and market democracy. But some main factors might be taken in consideration before saying so that easily: achievements and failures of Castro’s regime. Cuban’s life-expectancy raised up from 60 in the 50’s to 80 years in 80’s, literacy rate raised to 90 percent. Public vaccinations programs eradicated many diseases such as polio, diphtheria, tetanus, meningitis, and measles. Castro’s regime has also delivered full employment, free education and universal health care system. But at the same time, Cubans are deeply frustrated by their just making ends of meet’s way of life, although they have a skilled work force, and bad conditions of housing, public transportation, clothing . On the other hand, adversaries of Castro’s regime are always calling attention of the public opinion outside and on the island to his human rights violations such as 5,700 roughly executions, 1,200 extrajudicial murders, and 300 political prisoners, without speaking about 2 million Cuban refugees living abroad.

In the last years the fall of Cuba’s socialism was predicted by its critics at least three times, when US made its economical blockade after the missile’s crisis at the Pigs Bay in the fall of 1962; or when Soviet Union cut off its $4 billion annual subsidy and the economical growth of the island fell down 35% overnight by the end of the Cold War; and, lastly, at the present time by the dawn of the myth, who is still an icon of social justice in many countries of Latin America, including in Brazil. Whatever happens after Castro on that island no one is yet able to predict. But it has been told truly that rule of law, free market, private property, pluralistic elections, respect to religious minorities and sexual freedom, releasing political prisoners, all of those modern and western values and achievements still remain only a whispered desire in Cubans’ hearts and minds.

EAST TIMOR

The Small Asian Island of East Timor seems to have an irrefutable fate: rampage. That resource-rich but still impoverished country has been invaded by Indonesia since 1976, the following year that Portugal pulled out of its territory after almost four hundred years of colonization.

When Asia-countries economic crisis of 1999 arised and reached Indonesia its occupation in East Timor became much more difficult, at first because the fourth biggest populated country in the world had no longer support of international communities and financial international institutions as World Bank or FMI; secondly, because at that time many human rights activists groups were struggling to push Indonesia military troops out of East Timor by spreadig out worldwide reports on human rights violations there.

However, they had many concerns in 1999 about Indonesia's pulling out of East Timor and its full independence before its government was ready to keep up peace. Finally, when it took place an UN-sponsored vote in August, 30, 1999, beginning waves of violence sparked through the country.

East Timor has been divided by anti-independence militia groups - for whom Indonesia military still provides clandestine guns - on one side and the government on the other side. Many of militia troops are made by former soldiers who came from the army, including Alfredo Reinado. They claim having been sacked by the army just because they came from the western part of the island which was colonized by Dutch and already was part of Indonesian territory.

East Timorese have been watched uncountable acts of terrorism against their people taking place everywhere in the country. Rebels are hidden in the mountains and protected by local people and they have been planning many attacks into the government. Few days ago, there were two attempts of murdering the East Timor's President Jose Ramos-Horta, who underwent to an emergency surgery after the attack and still has his life at risk, and the Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao who escaped without injuries and claims that the attacks were carried out by Reinado and his followers.

More than 200,000 people have died since 1976 in East Timor. International organizations must help East Timor before nothing else is left.