Fidel Castro’s resignation on February, 19, 2008, makes an old question come up to us once more: was he good for Cuba? Backing to 1959, when Mr. Castro and Che Guevara overthrow Fulgencio Batista from power the leaders of Cuban Revolution had made a promise of holding free elections and restoring democracy to the island. Years have gone since then and Cubans are still waiting for that political freedom.
Since July 2006, Mr. Castro has stepped down and has empowered his younger brother Raul – who is blamed by international press of alcoholism and lack of charisma – as a President of the Communist Party and the head of the Council of State. By that time Castro had undergone to an emergency surgery for a terminal intestinal cancer or diverticulitis with complications and last Tuesday (Fev, 19, 2008) he finally resigned by stating an official announcement on the Granma that he would not accept to be indicated by National Assembly to occupy the position of President and Commander in chief.
Washington and the large community of Cubans living in Florida and New Jersey still seem to wait for an opportunity to open Cuba to the world after Fidel’s resignation. However, nothing seems to change at all. The daily life on the island is exactly the same that used to be before that such a long-hoped announcement. Policymakers have different perspective of the following event. Some of them believe that it finally give to US the right opportunity of restoring democracy and an open society in Cuba. Others think the opposite by stating that communism in Cuba will outlive after Fidel, specially because he has prepared his staff for this moment for many years and the Cuba’s system seems to be ready for a very smooth and stable transition.
It has been told that Cuba’s system will not survive at all after Mr. Castro’s death, firstly, because his successor has a more opened agenda to modernize of the country inspired by Chinese model of development; secondly, because the long-oppressed population of Cuba is eager for political freedom and market democracy. But some main factors might be taken in consideration before saying so that easily: achievements and failures of Castro’s regime. Cuban’s life-expectancy raised up from 60 in the 50’s to 80 years in 80’s, literacy rate raised to 90 percent. Public vaccinations programs eradicated many diseases such as polio, diphtheria, tetanus, meningitis, and measles. Castro’s regime has also delivered full employment, free education and universal health care system. But at the same time, Cubans are deeply frustrated by their just making ends of meet’s way of life, although they have a skilled work force, and bad conditions of housing, public transportation, clothing . On the other hand, adversaries of Castro’s regime are always calling attention of the public opinion outside and on the island to his human rights violations such as 5,700 roughly executions, 1,200 extrajudicial murders, and 300 political prisoners, without speaking about 2 million Cuban refugees living abroad.
In the last years the fall of Cuba’s socialism was predicted by its critics at least three times, when US made its economical blockade after the missile’s crisis at the Pigs Bay in the fall of 1962; or when Soviet Union cut off its $4 billion annual subsidy and the economical growth of the island fell down 35% overnight by the end of the Cold War; and, lastly, at the present time by the dawn of the myth, who is still an icon of social justice in many countries of Latin America, including in Brazil. Whatever happens after Castro on that island no one is yet able to predict. But it has been told truly that rule of law, free market, private property, pluralistic elections, respect to religious minorities and sexual freedom, releasing political prisoners, all of those modern and western values and achievements still remain only a whispered desire in Cubans’ hearts and minds.
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